THE IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS ON THE WORK FORCE

MORE than 1,900 people have so far died from Ebola in the four affected west African countries, but many more will suffer the economic consequences. Governments reckon the worst of those effects are yet to be felt, but they are still busy trying to calculate what the outbreak is going to cost them. Here are Liberia’s thoughts:

The tiny post-conflict country has been growing at upwards of 8% over the last couple of years, but won’t expect anything like that kind of luck now. The government is still number-crunching with the International Monetary Fund, but it reckons Ebola will shave more than 2% of growth rates this year, putting estimates at 3.5%.

Finance minister Amara Konneh says that’s mostly because of damage done to mining, agriculture and service industries, as investors evacuate foreign workers, borders close, and international flights are suspended. Bread-basket regions are under quarantine, making agricultural trade impossible. Sime Darby, the world’s largest listed producer of oil palm, is slowing production and Sifca Group, an Ivory Coast-based agribusiness, has halted rubber exports. MrKonneh expects iron ore exports to fall in 2015 because investors like China Union and Arcelor Mittal are scaling down their operations and putting expansion plans on hold. Foreign exchange shortages are a big concern.

The finance ministry is bracing itself for up to $30m in lost revenues; a “significant” amount, it says, in the context of its meagre budget. Add to that the high cost of fighting the virus, and the country will run up a big fiscal deficit, even in light of international assistance. The government is putting in place fiscal austerity measures to compensate for that, including suspending all official foreign travel. But it may still may have to turn to the IMF for additional help.

Right now, Mr Konneh says, the priority is that the government allocates enough money to the healthcare sector. After that, it worries about paying its public servants. Security to enforce quarantines and curfews comes next. The rest, for now, may have to wait.